VR: It May Be Difficult to Monetize Isolation
In 1909, E.M. Forster wrote a short story titled “The Machine Stops” that is set in a post-apocalyptic Earth in which humanity exists underground in a network of tubes. Each individual lives alone in a small hexagonal room and social interaction is through a screen. The majority of the population worships the Machine that they live in and fear the outside world. Over a 100 years later, E.M. Forster’s short story appeared incredibly prescient during the height of the pandemic, however, even before the pandemic, as people stare at their screens, the short story has reflected elements of current day life. Throughout the very short history of advertisement, our eyes and attention have been the commodity. Today as virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) attempt to gain a foothold as major media platforms, our eyes focus upon small screens. The films we once watched on giant movie screens with state of the art sound systems are now consumed during a commute on a handheld screen and headphones. The smart phone and every related technology has been transformative from production to consumption. However, when we click on a mobile digital ad, it remains largely accidental. A quick “damn it” and click on an X closes the ad and returns us to our happy stream. In order for VR and AR platforms to gain a foothold in society, they must be financially viable which means that the ad streams must be commercially relevant and not a mistaken pupil glance or blink. Have we been prepared to live in the machine or do we already exist in the machine and merely need to incorporate the screens as a headset? It may very well be that many people would opt to wear their smartphones rather than have to hold them.
Meta, the corporation once known as Facebook that owns WhatsApp, Oculus, Instagram and is the greatest promoter of the so called metaverse, lost half a trillion dollars on October 27th 2022. Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta, has declared that the metaverse is a long term endeavor and that IT IS the future. In 2021, Apple handed over to the user whether or not one’s data is tracked for advertising and with the loss of the iOS tracking data, the value of targeted advertising has plummeted. Over the last few quarters, Alphabet (the parent company of Google) has had a 5% decrease in advertising pricing, however, Meta’s decrease has been an 18% price loss per advertisement. The loss of ad revenue is reflected in a drop of Alphabet and Meta’s stock value, however, again the Meta stock value has plummeted in comparison to Alphabet. This may be a short term falter or it may reflect that these companies do not have a lasting value.
Over the last six years I have been critical of virtual reality, however as a “new media artist” I have been curious and open to new creative platforms and I have been developing projects that are exported for both the desktop and virtual reality. Today, I remain highly skeptical of placing a device a couple inches from one’s eyes with a split screen for stereoscopic imaging to create an “immersive experience.” I feel that it is unhealthy and ridiculous. During the week of October 20th, I participated in DIGITAL ART ZURICH, a festival featuring several virtual reality (VR) projects. I witnessed one person come away from an interesting VR project feeling sick, unable to focus and state that if that is the future, they want no part of it. Later that day, this same person told me that it was at least two hours before they felt clear minded and well. I experienced the same VR project that was seated and had me dollying through a sci-fi narrative. In this project, teleporting and physically moving about was not available. I was fine through the experience, however, by the end I was sweating, the headset had become hot, heavy and uncomfortable and I badly wanted it off my head. The project lasted 10 to 15 minutes.
In a different gallery, there was a standing VR project that did not dolly the user through virtual environments and the only movement was to look around. This project was less uncomfortable. The greater issue here is that each user is isolated in their headset and the project itself seemed disorganized or without a central and coherent point. In the same gallery, there were desktop projects presented on large screens with keyboard and mouse interaction. With these projects, I saw friends sitting together, playing and discussing the projects.
A few weeks ago, I brought home an Oculus Quest 2, produced by Meta. My 14 year old son begged that I purchase an NFL VR game. I did so and then for 20 minutes, he was isolated in the headset throwing touchdowns. Previously, we would watch or play games together. Meta CEO Zuckerberg states that the metaverse will be social. Meta has launched Meta Quest Pro, a virtual and mixed reality headset. I have tried Microsoft’s mixed reality HoloLens and view it as a far superior experience to virtual reality, because I can see and interact with the real world environment while also seeing a virtual overlay. I do believe that mixed reality has a future if our eyes and minds can adapt to it. I do not feel the same about virtual reality.
I am an associate professor in the Department of Film & Media Studies at Hunter College. I teach an introductory digital production course that is split between a lecture and laboratories. The lectures present histories and theories regarding visual communication, graphic design, photography, animation, game production and non-linear storytelling. During the pandemic, the lectures and labs went online. This school year, the labs have returned to in-person, however the evening lecture has remained online. Attendance to the lecture has plummeted, perhaps it is my presentation or the fact that I record the lectures and provide my slides and notes, but I think the underlying issue is that it’s online. I regularly receive emails about free online lectures and if the topic is of interest, I sign up. However, of every ten lectures that I sign up for, I may attend one and many times I do not stay through to the end. Online lectures, virtual reality, distance learning, do not carry the commitment and strength of in-person interaction and experience. It’s difficult to blame the student.
Meta may be able to suffer ongoing financial losses. And Meta may find a way to resuscitate Facebook or monetize WhatsApp or Instagram or turn Oculus into an advertising platform; the bottom line is that technologies for mass adoption require immense funding. Over the last six decades, VR experiments have been promoted as the future of entertainment or gaming only to fail. I firmly believe that a mass audience does not want to wear a headset to be isolated with a screen a couple inches from their eyes. In my experience, even the social VR platforms through avatar interaction are isolating and dystopian. Perhaps the mixed-reality Meta Quest Pro will be a success and this is the moment to invest in Meta as the stock has fallen to a 2015 price. As mixed-reality headsets use eye tracking for navigation, it may very well be hard for users to not accidentally click on virtual ads an inch from their pupil and Meta’s price per ad will skyrocket.